Bond Yields Hold Near 6-Week Low Despite Iran War, Oil Surge
Yields Resist War Premium India 10-year benchmark bond yield settles at 6.67%, near 6-week lows despite Brent crude spiking 15% to $78. Bond market defies traditional war playbook
RBI Prioritizes Growth Three policy sources confirm central bank unlikely to hike rates despite weaker rupee, higher oil prices. Growth concerns outweigh inflation risks at 2.75% CPI—near lower tolerance band
Oil Import Vulnerability India imports 85% crude oil. Every $1 rise in barrel price adds $1.4 billion to import bill. Strait of Hormuz disruption threatens 50% of India's crude supplies
Fuel Subsidy Buffer Government has ₹2.5 lakh crore room to cut excise duties on petrol/diesel. Fuel retailers holding pump prices steady despite global crude surge—shielding consumer inflation temporarily
Market vs RBI Divergence Swap traders price in 1 rate hike over 12 months. RBI insiders say growth weighs more than inflation unless "extreme developments" unfold. Treasury yields globally rising but India bond rally persists