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CPI Inflation likely dropped to 5.4% in September

Oct 10, 2023

By: BlinkX Research Team

India's Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is anticipated to have reached a three-month low in September, returning to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) acceptable range of 2-6 percent after two months. According to a survey CPI inflation is expected to have fallen to 5.4 percent, down from 6.83 percent in August.

The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation is set to release the retail inflation data for September and the industrial production data for August on October 12 at 5:30 pm. Economists are predicting a surge in industrial growth, with the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) potentially reaching 9.1 percent, up from 5.7 percent in July.

If it reaches 9.1 percent, August IIP growth will be the highest in 14 months. The fall in tomato prices, which saw a substantial 62 percent month-on-month decrease as they returned to normal levels, likely contributed to the decline in inflation. However, during the same period, onion prices increased by 12 percent, and both cereals and pulses experienced sequential price hikes, as reported by the Department of Consumer Affairs.

Cereal prices rose by 1-1.6 percent month-on-month, while pulses saw an increase of 1.5-5.9 percent. Conversely, edible oil prices likely applied downward pressure as they were predominantly lower the previous month.